Tuesday, March 8, 2022

This war needs a tank buy-back program

#RussiaUkraine #UkraineRussia #StandWithUkraine SlavaUkraini


The Russians have it half right about humanitarian evacuation routes to Russia and Belarus. The first people who need safe evacuation routes out of Ukraine are their own troops. This war needs a good tank buyback program. It probably also needs a VERY carefully structured "give us back our nuclear power plants" but nuances of that are out of scope for this blog post.


Start with those tank crews stuck in the long traffic jam on the way to Kyiv  They need safe passage out of their impossible supply lines. The world needs their tanks dismantled. Assemble some funds. Pay off the tank crews. The less functional the vehicles they turn over to Ukrainian forces, the higher the price. Likewise other weaponry. In exchange for turning over their weapons Ukraine will arrange for international air transport back to Russia. Act now. Move them while their hot. The world doesn't want to buy stale tanks three weks or three months from now. Move them while they're hot.


Maybe the troops can pay for direct transport to their homes, but a better bargain for the rest of the world would be mystery you don't know where you are going until you get there flights to places like Dushanbe, Alma Aty, Vladivostok, maybe Helsinki with direct routes back home. Or troops with really good intelligence value could be offered asylum in Ukraine.


Putin is not required to like welcoming home Russian passport holders in this situation. RantWoman assumes there are some more strategic screws that could be applied. Plus, even the Russian gulag isn't big enough to hold everyone who just needs to go home. Could the return of world financial connections structured so that the economy could come back to life while breaking old corrupt patterns?


RantWoman also understands that President Zelensky of Ukraine wants a no-fly zone and more ammunition. The world is saying "we love your democracy but no you can't have that," regardless of whether the world's arms merchants are always looking for innovative ways to market their products.


Smarter strategic thinkers than RantWoman get to figure out details like money flows, flight paths, getting whole units to sign up so the troops ready to take the deal don't get shot by their fellow fighters. 


Would the world be willing to try to get some of the oligarchs and siloviki looking for yacht sanctuaries to buy in? 

Could safe passage out of Russia be arranged for Putin to his own yacht.


See, RantWoman is staying up too late doom-scrolling and not even looking at the worst human rights violation videos.


RantWoman finds the entire topic of refugee flows discouraging.


RantWoman assumes people are going to find some creative ways to direct individual remittances, but being cut off from international financial flows is going to make that harder.


Cutting off flows of oil, gas, and associated revenues makes sense climate-wise but people still need to keep warm and the energy infrastructure can't pivot on a dime. RantWoman imagines exponential increase in screeching from the Drill Baby Drill Climate Change What Climate Change crown in a Twitter feed RantWoman voluntarily visits. RantWoman is not in a position to analyze gas prices and world oil markets. In short, RantWoman wishes she were more confident that cutting off oil and gas purchases from Russia will bring the kind of relief the world needs. 


RantWoman thinks cutting off Russian supply lines is great except it's harder to find ways for them to GO HOME.


There. Try it!


RantWoman will now delegate solving world peace to people smarter about the concepts RantWoman would need to make this idea work. 


RantWoman really has been neglecting dirty dishes and compost remova but such sacrifices will be worth it doncha think?


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